The mayoral campaign just went through an unusual news cycle with dueling stories about the driving records of two leading candidates, Carmen Rubio and Rene Gonzalez. (They both lost their driving privileges more than once. Rubio racked up an extraordinary number of parking tickets while Gonzalez also got a ticket for fare-dodging on TriMet.)
I asked pollster John Horvick, senior vice president at DHM Research, for his views on this key moment in the mayoral election:
Is it unusual to see two dueling stories at the same time about different candidates?
“This is the time where I think reporters are looking through public records to try to find things. ‘Tis the season for these sorts of public record dives.”
“I guess it's a little bit interesting that just hasn't happened previously. [Context: Carmen Rubio ran for City Council four years ago, winning easily in the May primary, and Rene Gonzalez had a competitive race two years ago, beating an incumbent in November. Their driving records predate those election bids.]”
Will it have an impact on how people view the candidates?
“This is the first competitive race that [Rubio]’s had. And her leadership style hasn't been one where she's brought a lot of attention to herself. Which is to say that for many, many voters, this is the first they're learning about her.”
“For Rene Gonzalez, it's interesting because it does weaken his persona — [as] the guy that is for public safety, police, law and order, and people being responsible for the mistakes that they make. ”
“So I think it matters in that sense. [But] especially in this election, things like endorsements are going to be really crucial — whether they come from the newspapers, or they come from unions or other sorts of civic organizations. I suspect this isn't going to make folks stop endorsing.”
Does it open up a chance for another candidate?
“In my mind, it's pretty much a two-person race at this point, but perhaps this creates some space for Keith Wilson.”
But having the two stories, does that blunt their impact?
“Yeah, it makes it difficult for either side to make an issue, right? It's going to be hard for Rene Gonzalez to point to Carmen Rubio or vice versa on this issue when they’ve got the pot calling the kettle black or whatever. You just don't throw stones in the glass. Pick your metaphor.”
“I'm not even sure what the issue is — if it's personal responsibility, or your care and commitment to paying your debts to the city, or your leadership of a government that you break the rules in your personal way.”
